The government recently announced a series of measures designed to make Britain a low-carbon economy, including a large expansion of renewable energy (primarily wind), grants for better home insulation and a so-called green transport strategy. Under the Climate Change Act, the UK is “legally bound” to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 26% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 (relative to 1990 levels).
Meeting such ambitious targets will require substantial investment and while ministers have emphasised alleged advantages, such as the creation of 400,000 “green jobs”, there has been little acknowledgement of the wider economic impact.
Higher energy bills and transport costs are likely to be devastating for many businesses. Some enterprises will be forced to close. Others will relocate to locations where energy and transport are cheaper and environmental regulations less burdensome. In some instances, potential entrepreneurs won’t even bother starting new ventures in the UK. Overall, jobs are likely to be lost rather than created.
Then there is the impact on the less well off. People on benefits, for example £64 per week Jobseeker’s Allowance, may already be using around one third of their (non-housing) incomes to pay utility bills inflated by existing environmental policies.
If this share increases further, there will be strong pressure to raise welfare benefits and winter fuel payments to compensate. Taxes will have to rise accordingly and the already weak incentives to enter low-paid work will be further undermined.
However, the most devastating impact of climate change policy is likely to be on the developing world. While some middle income countries may benefit initially from the flight of businesses from rich nations, it is unrealistic to think that a large upward shift in the level of political control and central planning can take place in the West without negatively affecting the Third World.
The resulting misallocation of resources will hamper entrepreneurship and innovation leading to reduced wealth creation. And restricted and constrained markets will inevitably limit the opportunities for trade, thereby hindering economic development.
The impact of climate change policy therefore goes far beyond landscapes ruined by wind turbines and higher electricity bills. Big cuts in CO2 emissions are likely to prolong the misery of hundreds of millions of the world’s poorest.