IEA’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes by five to four to raise Bank Rate by 1⁄4% in March

SMPC votes 5-4 to raise rate by 1/4%

In its most recent e-mail poll, which was finalised on 26th February, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) decided by five votes to four that Bank Rate should be raised on Thursday 7th March. Three SMPC members wanted an immediate increase of 1⁄2%, while two advocated a rise of 1⁄4%, implying a rise of 1⁄4% on normal Bank of England voting procedures. This represented the second consecutive month that a majority of shadow committee members had decided that a rate increase was justified on economic grounds. However, no one expected to see an actual rate change this close to Mr Osborne’s 20th March Budget. In addition, four SMPC members believed the British economy was so weak that Bank Rate should be held, while one believed that additional Quantitative Easing (QE) would be required before the economy could recover.

The majority view was that the stock of QE should be held at its present £375bn, however. Both the SMPC’s ‘hawks’ and ‘doves’ included people who believed that QE would be more effective if the Bank bought more private-sector assets and relied less on government debt purchases. There was also disquiet about the extent of the structural fiscal weakness that might be revealed in the 20th March Budget. This might exacerbate the downwards pressure on Sterling that was initially triggered by Sir Mervyn King’s comments at the 13th February Inflation Report launch and subsequently exacerbated by the removal of Britain’s AAA rating by Moody’s on 22nd February. The rapidly diminishing credibility of other aspects of UK policymaking made it difficult for the Bank of England to carry conviction, especially given its history of inflation overshoots, in the view of several SMPC members.

The SMPC is a group of economists who have gathered quarterly at the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) since July 1997. That it was the first such group in Britain, and that it gathers regularly to debate the issues involved, distinguishes the SMPC from the similar exercises carried out elsewhere. Because the committee casts precisely nine votes each month, it carries a pool of ‘spare’ members since it is impractical for every member to vote every time. This can lead to changes in the aggregate vote, depending on who contributed to a particular poll. The nine independent analyses should be regarded as more significant than the exact vote. The next SMPC gathering will be held on Tuesday 16th April and its minutes will be published on Sunday 5th May. The next two SMPC e-mail polls will be released on the Sundays of 31st March and 2nd June, respectively.