IEA’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes by six to three to raise Bank Rate by ¼% in February

SMPC votes 6-3 to raise rate by 1/4%

Following its most recent quarterly gathering, held at the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) on 15th January, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) decided by six votes to three that Bank Rate should be raised on Thursday 7th February. Four SMPC members wanting an increase of ¼%, while two advocated a rise of ½%, implying a rise of ¼% on normal Bank of England voting procedures. The recommendation of a rate rise in February was the first time since September 2011 that a majority of the SMPC had voted in favour of higher interest rates. One reason was that fiscal policy seemed even further off course than was previously believed, and risked damaging the credibility of all UK policy making. Another was that the lull in the storms engulfing the Euro-zone provided an opportunity to raise Bank Rate while the markets were still reasonably calm.

However, there were also some noticeable intellectual differences between the SMPC majority, who wanted a rate rise, and the approach more commonly favoured by UK policy makers and the financial media. In particular, it was believed that the almost unprecedented degree of government intervention in the UK economy in recent years was leading to major problems with aggregate supply and preventing the re-allocation of resources from Zombie sectors to those with genuine growth potential. It was also feared that sustained artificially low interest rates were leading to a growth-destroying misallocation of capital.  However, three SMPC members believed that there was a genuine demand shortfall, which would be alleviated by additional monetary stimulus. Most SMPC members thought that there should be no additional Quantitative Easing (QE) for the time being, however. 

The SMPC is a group of economists who have gathered quarterly at the IEA since July 1997. That it was the first such group in Britain, and that it gathers regularly to debate the issues involved, distinguishes the SMPC from the similar exercises carried out elsewhere. Because the committee casts precisely nine votes each month, it carries a pool of ‘spare’ members since it is impractical for every member to vote every time. This can lead to changes in the aggregate vote, depending on who contributed to a particular poll. The nine independent analyses should be regarded as more significant than the exact vote. The next SMPC gathering will be held on Tuesday 16th April 2013 and its minutes will be published on Sunday 5th May. The next two SMPC e-mail polls will be released on the Sundays of 3rd and 31st March, respectively.

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