IEA’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes by six to three to raise Bank Rate by 1⁄2% in May

SMPC votes 6-3 to raise rate by 1/2%

Following its most recent quarterly gathering, held at the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) on 16th April, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) decided by six votes to three that Bank Rate should be raised on Thursday 9th May. Five SMPC members wanting an increase of 1⁄2%, another voted for a 1⁄4% increase, and three voted to hold Bank Rate. This vote distribution implies a 1⁄2% increase on normal Bank of England voting procedures. The recommendation of a rate rise in May represented the fourth consecutive month that a majority of the SMPC had voted in favour of higher interest rates. However, it was the first time for several years that a majority of the shadow committee had recommended an increase of 1⁄2% rather than 1⁄4%.

While the SMPC has recommended a more hawkish stance than the official rate setters recently, there has always been a SMPC minority who wished to freeze rates until there were clear signs of recovery. The SMPC was also more hawkish than the official rate setters during the credit bubble that preceded the 2007 and 2008 financial crash. It is hard to argue, with hindsight, that the Bank of England was justified in ignoring the signs that the Heath- Barber and Lawson credit booms were being repeated in the earlier 2000s. There appear to be three main intellectual differences between the majority view on the SMPC and the official one. These are: 1) the extent to which weak growth is a supply-side phenomenon, rather than a demand-side one; 2) how far misguided financial regulation has led to a damaging restriction in the supplies of money and credit, and 3) whether Quantitative Easing (QE) has been exhausted as a stimulus or, alternatively, should be re-directed towards private sector debt.

The SMPC is a group of economists who have gathered quarterly at the IEA since July 1997. That it was the first such group in Britain, and that it gathers regularly to debate the issues involved, distinguishes the SMPC from the similar exercises carried out elsewhere. Because the committee casts precisely nine votes each month, it carries a pool of ‘spare’ members since it is impractical for every member to vote every time. This can lead to changes in the aggregate vote, depending on who contributed to a particular poll. The nine independent analyses should be regarded correspondingly as more significant than the exact vote. The next two SMPC e-mail polls will be released on the Sundays of 2nd and 30th June, respectively. The next quarterly SMPC gathering will be held on Tuesday 9th July and its minutes will be published on Sunday 28th July.