In its poll closing Wednesday 2nd July, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by eight votes to one that Bank Rate should be raised on July 10th, including five votes for a rise of ½% and three for a rise of ¼%.
Those advocating a rise acknowledged that the economy is not yet over-heating, money growth is low, and inflation overshoots are not an immediate risk. They did not propose raising rates to cool down the economy but, instead, sought to withdraw some of the excess monetary stimulus introduced at the time of the financial crisis so as to allow the price mechanism to allocate loans and capital. The current strategy of keeping interest rates very low whilst using bank regulation to prevent money and credit growth was loudly condemned.
For several of the members the Bank of England has already waited far too long before raising rates, with some criticising its “neglect” whilst others focused upon the confusion created by the signals from forward guidance. The main way to signal should be by changing a price — the interest rate — not by speeches or regulatory changes.
The member that preferred to keep rates on hold noted that not only is inflation low, but pipeline inflationary pressures are also low, as are wage growth, money growth and credit growth. For that member there was simply not enough reason in the data to raise yet.
The SMPC is a group of economists who have gathered quarterly at the IEA since July 1997. That it was the first such group in Britain, and that it gathers regularly to debate the issues involved, distinguishes the SMPC from the similar exercises carried out elsewhere. To ensure that nine votes are cast each month, it carries a pool of ‘spare’ members. This can lead to changes in the aggregate vote, depending on who contributed to a particular poll. As a result, the nine independent and named analyses should be regarded as more significant than the exact overall vote. The next two SMPC e-mail polls will be released on the Sundays of 3rd August and 31st August, respectively.