In the January poll of the IEA's Shadow Monetary Policy Committte six SMPC members voted to hold rates while two voted for a 0.25% cut, and one voted for a 0.5% cut. The preponderance of holds provides a slightly misleading picture of consensus, however. This is because many SMPC members thought that it was inappropriate to alter rates in January, as a result of uncertainties about the strength of retail sales over the important Christmas and New Year periods, but could see a case for a more active approach in February, when the MPC will also have a new set of Inflation Report forecasts available.
