Recent government commitments to continue to increase state pension expenditure in real terms are both unaffordable and irresponsible. Instead, the government must accelerate the introduction of a later retirement age and urgently reform labour market regulations to enable people to work longer. New research from the Institute of Economic Affairs outlines ten policies which could alleviate the fiscal problems caused by an ageing population.
Employment rates amongst older-middle-aged people have fallen significantly. Between 1968 and the end of the 1990s, employment rates for men aged 60-64 slumped from around 80% to 50%. Despite a recent recovery in employment rates to 60% for males aged 60-64, in the last generation, there has been a marked decline in employment of older-middle-aged people.
The result is that, under current policies, state pension provision and other benefits paid to those who retire before state pension age represent a ticking time bomb for the public purse. State pension expenditure is expected to rise by 2.4 percentage points of GDP between 2012 and 2062 – an increase of 42% as a proportion of national income.
In Income from Work – The Fourth Pillar of Income Provision in Old Age, Gabriel Sahlgren conclusively finds that the current state pension system is incentivising early retirement. He also finds that employment protection legislation raises unemployment at older ages - including before state pension age. Later retirement benefits the individual through improved health* and higher incomes and it also benefits taxpayers by reducing the costs of ageing populations.
Ten policy recommendations to ease the state pension time bomb:
- Accelerate the rise in retirement age. From November 2018, the state pension age for men and women should increase by two months every quarter. This would see the age increase to 68 by January 2023.
- Link retirement