So confident was Gordon Brown that his policies had neutered the boom-bust cycle, that he claimed in his 2007 Budget speech it would never happen again. This, Fred Harrison argues, ignores an inconvienant truth. Relying on evidence going back more than 200 years, he warns of a regular 18-year property cycle due to peak in 2008.
The crisis that began with sub-prime morgages in the US has already sent shock waves through the global economy and triggered a run on Northern Rock. This demonstrates the accuracy of Harrison’s prognosis outlined in the first edition of Boom Bust in 2005.
Under present policies the bust is predictable, and readers can learn how to avoid being trapped in the debts that bankrupt businesses and lead to the repossession of homes. However, the more desirable aim of long-term stability, sought by Brown and governments around the world, is not achievable, Harrison argue, without reform of taxation.
'The man who predicted today's housing woes - ten years ago ... does Harrison really know something we don't?' January 2008, The Mail on Sunday
'He does make the case for the existence of an 18-year business cycle, which he links to speculation in the property market.' Sir Samuel Brittan, The Financial Times
2007, 2005, Published by Shepheard-Walwyn Publishers, ISBN 978 0 856 83254 3, 282pp, PB